Spilled Oil Policy
It has been said and written that the Gulf oil spill could be Barack Obama’s Katrina.
That it most probably already is, but it could get much worse. Not “Waterloo”, but more like Napoleon’s ill-conceived Russian campaign of 1812, which cost him his army, his reputation, and, eighteen months later, his throne.
Napoleon roamed across Europe looking for enemies to defeat. If one does that long enough, one is bound to find one that can beat you. Russia, with tsar, soldier and winter each playing its part, whipped Napoleon.
President Obama has also thrived by taking adversarial positions, generously passing out blame to whoever happens to be the whipping boy of the hour: Bush, fat cat bankers, auto executives, Bush, congressional Republicans, insurance companies, Bush.
Now it is British Petroleum’s turn. And in BP’s vicinity stands the whole oil industry, “Big Oil”, as a fat target to attack and squeeze.
There is one problem with this: America needs oil.
Oil is the only source of energy we cannot go without. To generate electricity we can replace coal with gas, gas with wind, and wind with nuclear. To move our people and goods around this most mobile of nations, by truck, plane, barge or train, we have no alternative. Ninety-seven percent of our transportation runs on petroleum products, two thirds of it imported from abroad. It will take a decade or two, at the very least, to change that.
Trouble will come far sooner.
Let us simply look at Iran.
If Iran was after nuclear electricity generation, it can buy reactors, complete with fuel supply, from France, Russia or South Korea any time. Producing one’s own nuclear fuel is far more complicated and expensive. So it is logical to conclude that there at least could be an ulterior motive behind the Iranian uranium enrichment program: mainly nuclear weapons.
Israel cannot afford this possibility. It has its own nuclear arsenal, but it does not matter what happens to the enemy after the fact. Israel cannot afford a single nuclear hit, and that means that Iran may not get a single bomb.
There is a “red line date” after which Iran will have enough weapons-grade uranium to build such a device. That date is known to the Israelis with a fair degree of accuracy. They must strike before that date if they are to strike at all, and we are talking about months here, maybe a year, but before the November 2012 U.S. election in any case.
The U.S. now has some hundred thousand troops, backed by large air bases, on each side of Iran. To the south cruises the U.S. Navy. To the north is Russia, which has been neutral or cooperated with the United States in similar past circumstances. In other words, in case of a strike, Iran is a sitting duck.
But if they see their nuke program going down, they can still do a lot of damage, whether by closing the Strait of Hormuz or hitting Saudi or Iraqi processing facilities, together with assorted terrorist actions. An oil shortage is the logical outcome.
So it might be a grave error at this time to attack the oil industry, and particularly to interrupt drilling. Those 33 exploratory rigs the President has ordered idle for six months or more will not stay here. There is plenty of demand elsewhere, and once they move they will not come back.
BP might well have been greedy and careless in this case, and there should be adequate compensation. Deep water drilling is risky, and there should be rules and safeguards. But these issues are best handled in a spirit of cooperation. The oil industry has powered our economy and fueled our wars with efficiency and dispatch for well over a century. It is still needed and can perform great service.
Maybe President Obama thinks that gas at seven dollars a gallon will help his “green” agenda. We would advise him to reconsider.
